ChanceCalc is a revolutionary Excel add-in that performs the arithmetic of uncertainty using the same keystrokes as those for numerical calculations. This cures the Flaw of Averages, a set of systematic errors that occur when uncertain forecasts are replaced by single “average” numbers.

Where arithmetic tells you that X+Y=Z, the arithmetic of uncertainty asks what you want Z to be and then estimates your chances. Chance-informed decisions display tradeoffs between a range of goals and the chances of achieving them. This improves collaboration by acknowledging the risk attitudes of diverse stakeholders.

The open SIPmath™ Standard communicates uncertainties as actionable data, generated by experts using the SIPmath Modeler Tools, R, Python, or other environments. Just as electrification allows non-experts to use electricity generated by experts to power lightbulbs and appliances, non-experts may use SIPs in Excel or decision dashboards in a process we call Chancification. This ushers in a new approach to enterprise risk management in which risks and opportunities are rolled up like numbers in an accounting system.