Courses

Introduction to Probability Management

Learn about probability management from one of its founders

Join Dr. Sam Savage for Introduction to Probability Management, a new self-paced EdX course offered by Stanford Online.

Students who master course assignments will earn a Verified Certificate for $89. This certificate will count as the first level of ProbabilityManagement.org's developing certification program. The course may be audited at no charge.

What you'll learn:

• How to recognize the Flaw of Averages, a set of systematic errors that occur when uncertainties are represented by single numbers, usually an average. It explains why so many projects are behind schedule, beyond budget, and below projection.

• The Arithmetic of Uncertainty, which performs calculations with uncertain inputs, resulting in uncertain outputs from which you can calculate true average outcomes and the chances of achieving specified goals.

• How to create Interactive Simulations which may be shared with any Excel user without the need for add-ins or macros. The approach is just as at home in R, Python, or any programming environment that supports arrays.