Projected Revenue Estimation from Crowdsourced Information on Statistical Errors is based on historical accuracy statistics of past forecasts. These are represented as auditable data called SIPs that obey both the laws of arithmetic and the laws of probability. When SIPs are used instead of numbers in budgetary calculations, they indicate not only average revenues, but also the chances of achieving specified targets. We call the process of replacing numbers with SIPs chancification.
In 2015 the Government Finance Officers Association (GFOA) performed a study of the accuracy of tax revenue projections made by a small number of its nearly 22,000 members, most of whom are municipal CFOs. ProbabilityManagement.org and GFOA have teamed up to extract SIP libraries from this data to assist CFOs in risk-aware budgeting.
The PRECISE Uncertainty Project is based on the 2015 study, and we are publishing the materials developed from it in an effort to generate interest in this approach and recruit participation in an expanded study.
How to participate
Experiment with the documented chance-based budget dashboards. One contains a copy of the library, and one reads a copy from the cloud.
If you are a GFOA member, download the Data Entry Template, provide as much data as you can on your historical forecasting accuracy and email it to info@probabilitymanagement.org with PRECISE GFOA STUDY in the subject field.
If you are not a GFOA member and want to apply similar methods in your own organization, contact us at info@probabilitymanagement.org with CHANCIFICATION in the subject field.
Files
In each Excel file, you will find an Instructions tab showing you how to use that file. You may also refer to the flowchart below.
