Project Management
Applying Probability Management to Cost Overruns, Reference Class Forecasts on Steroids by CPT Pace W. Murray and Dr. Sam L. Savage was published in Phalanx Magazine.
Flyvbjerg SIP Library to accompany model by Murray and Savage
Side Bars to Phalanx article:
Probability Management, Part 1
This foundational article describes how coherent modeling provided a global perspective for a petroleum exploration firm that had traditionally been highly decentralized. The basic approach was to extend the concepts of modern financial portfolio theory developed in the 1950s and 1960s to portfolios of risky exploration ventures. ORMS Today, 2006.
Shell Model (.xlsx)
IMPORTANT: You need to enable macros to access the clickable scatter plot. Depending on the version of Excel, you may need to right click on it, go to Properties, then click Unblock.
The Flaw of Averages In Project Management
by Philip Fahringer, John Hinton, Marc Thibault and Sam Savage
This article explores the use of stochastic libraries in simulating project completion. PMI Virtual Library, 2011.
Model: Construction Project.xlsx
SIPmath GANTT Project Planner
This model was created by adding SIPmath simulation to one of several online templates that appeared in Microsoft Office with a search for “GANTT.” Note that this model has a check box that switches it from deterministic to simulated. Guess which mode has the longest duration on average.
SIPmath Gantt Project Planner.xlsx
