Pandemic Modeling
Actionable Uncertainty in Hospital Bed Management
This presentation, given by Sam Savage and Eng-Wee Yeo at the 2021 INFORMS Healthcare Conference, describes the challenges in managing hospitals under uncertain COVID-19 surges and how the discipline of probability management can transform uncertain CDC models into actionable data that hospital administrators can use to make chance-informed decisions.
The Flaw of Averages in Flattening the Curve
Slowing the rate of contagion of an epidemic, or flattening the curve, is economically costly by keeping people at home. However, if it prevents limited critical care capacity from becoming overwhelmed, it may save thousands of lives.
Blog Post by Sam Savage
A Combination of Coronavirus and the Flaw of Averages Can Drive You Nuts
This model reflects the effects of ignoring the uncertainty in the initial growth rate of an infectious disease, what epidemiologists call the Reproductive Ratio or R0 (R naught).
Blog Post by Sam Savage
Simulated Disease Trajectories Given the Uncertainty in R0