By Dr. Sam L. Savage
Source: Predictit.org
As I, like 51 million others watched the debate the other night, I suddenly realized there was something even more important to be watching: the prediction market reactions. Prediction markets, although not without potential problems, react instantly and reflect where people are putting their own money. They are much faster than polls and potentially more accurate.
The left graph displays real time “Presidential Win” probabilities and market volume for the top six people, candidates or not for a 24-hour period starting four hours before the debate. The right graph displays 30 days ending eight days after the debate for Trump, Biden and Harris, which shows the longer term impact of the debate.
Learn more about prediction markets and how my father’s work help lay the foundation of the prediction markets at my Medium Post.