Now available on Amazon Kindle
by Sam L. Savage
I am happy to announce the release of my latest book, Chancification: How to Fix the Flaw of Averages, available on Kindle and soon to be released in paperback.
In my previous book, The Flaw of Averages, I introduced the concept of probability management, which represents uncertainties as auditable data called SIPs. Since then, technical contributions from a wide range of talented individuals backed up by a dedicated team here at ProbabilityManagement.org have turned this concept into a practical discipline. Today experts can generate SIP Libraries on virtually any software platform (think electricity), for use by non-experts in chance-informed dashboards on virtually any other software platform (think light bulbs). Welcome to the Chance Age!
The book, with a foreword by Doug Hubbard and illustrations by Jeff Danziger, describes how new technologies and data standards allow organizations to replace calculations based on numbers with those based on chances, just as electrification replaced systems that run on fossil fuels with those that run on electricity. Topics include:
Curing Post-Traumatic Statistics Disorder (PTSD) with Limbic Analytics, which connects the seat of the intellect to the seat of the pants.
Downloadable examples of how to fix the Flaw of Averages in Excel.
The Arithmetic of Uncertainty: Arithmetic tells you that X+Y=Z. The Arithmetic of Uncertainty ask what you want Z to be, then estimates the chances.
Speaking Uncertainty to Power: Clear explanations of chances can earn you the permission to be uncertain.
The Technology of Chancification, including the SIPmath™ 3.0 Standard from ProbabilityManagement.org, based on Doug Hubbard’s portable random number generator and Tom Keelin’s breakthrough Metalog distribution.
Get 30% off the paperback version of The Flaw of Averages
Chancification shows how to solve the problems of dealing with uncertainty exposed by my earlier book, The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty (John Wiley & Sons, 2009, 2012). If you have not read either one, I would start with current book. However, it refers to the first book throughout for deeper explanations of the math of uncertainty.
John Wiley & Sons has generously offered a 30% discount on the paperback edition of The Flaw of Averages. Use discount code BPFS2 (be sure to click Apply) at the link to the left.
© Copyright Sam Savage, 2022