A New Era in Probability Management
by Sam L. Savage
The discipline of probability management represents uncertainties as data called SIPs that obey both the laws of arithmetic and the laws of probability. Three complementary breakthroughs in simulation technology are bringing the field to a new level in a process we call Chancification.
Just as electrification replaced systems running on fossil fuels with those running on electricity, Chancification replaces calculations running on numbers with those running on probabilities. And just as electrification required both a power grid for distribution and lightbulbs to make electricity useful, Chancification provides a probability power grid for representing uncertainty and a new lightbulb in ChanceCalc to illuminate decision in the face of uncertainty.
ChanceCalc, which makes use of Virtual SIPs stored on the SIPmath Network, is so revolutionary that I hope you will watch the video below to learn more about it.
The probability power grid itself is based on three complementary breakthroughs in simulation technology.
The AC Power Standard
The 3.0 PM SIPmath Standard, led by Sam Savage, represents uncertainties as virtual SIP arrays based on the HDR Generator and Metalog distributions.
The AC Power Generator
The HDR Random Number Generator, developed by Doug Hubbard, ensures statistical coherence across simulations running on different platforms.
The Transformer
The revolutionary Metalog Distributions, invented by Tom Keelin, are unprecedented in quantifying uncertainty from data with a single family of formulas.
But technology alone is not enough. We urge you to explore Chancification in more detail and assist your organization in curing the Flaw of Averages.
Here’s what you can do:
Read the article on Chancification in ORMS Today.
Sign up to beta test ChanceCalc and provide feedback on the performance and tutorial.
Sign up for our Chancification webinar series.
© Copyright 2021 Sam Savage