Video Excerpts: Probability Management at Stanford University

by Sam Savage

On September 17, I delivered a one-hour webinar previewing my Winter Quarter course in Project Risk Analysis in Stanford University’s Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. This course will apply the discipline of probability management to such problems as risk return tradeoffs in R&D portfolios and rolling up operational risk across assets such as gas pipelines. Although the entire 57-minute webinar is available, I recommend the following excerpts.

0. Introduction 0:48

Limbic Analytics:
Connecting the Seat of the Intellect to the Seat of the Pants

1. The Flaw of Averages 4:08

•The Concept

•The Cartoon

•The Audio Logo

2. A Cure for the Flaw of Averages 2:50

•Interactive Simulations in Excel

•SIPs (Stochastic Information Packets)
Conveying Uncertainty as Data

3. The SIPmath Standard 0:56

The 60-Cycle AC Current Standard for Conveying Uncertainty as Data

4. Putting It All Together 4:55

•Getting Distributions from Forecasts

•Using Libraries with the SIPmath Tools

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© Copyright 2018 Sam Savage