MORS Community of Practice in Probability Management

Readiness Framework Article on CIMSEC.org

Moving Toward a Holistic, Rigorous, Analytical Readiness Framework by Connor S. McLemore, Shaun Doheney, Philip Fahringer, and Dr. Sam Savage.

This article proposes that the military adopt a uniform data framework to better quantify readiness predictions and better communicate risks, leading to better cost and risk tradeoff discussions among decision-makers. Center for International Maritime Security, May 24, 2021.

Military Readiness Modeling Article in MOR Journal

Military Readiness Modeling: Changing the Question from “Ready or Not?” to “How Ready for What?” by Connor McLemore, Shaun Doheney, Sam Savage, and Philip Fahringer

This article (fee to download for non-MORS members) presents an actionable data framework to improve military readiness reporting systems using stochastic scenario libraries that permit calculation of the probabilities of military readiness for specified missions at uncertain future times. The framework allows lower-level readiness reports to be “rolled up” into higher level reports across unit types and military branches, thus allowing better readiness estimates to better communicate “how ready for what” combinations of military assets are. Military Operations Research Journal, Vol. 26, No. 1, 2021.

Calculating Carrier Air Wing Readiness Article in PHALANX Magazine

Calculating Carrier Air Wing Readiness: An Additive Approach by Shaun Doheney, Connor McLemore, and Sam Savage. Describes the development of a stochastic library that drives a decision dashboard for a hypothetical aircraft carrier air wing composed of all the aircraft on a single aircraft carrier, which allows a commander to input mission requirements and estimate the chance that the air wing will be ready to successfully carry out that mission on short notice. December 2019, PHALANX - The Magazine of National Security Analysis, Volume 52, No. 4.

Measuring Military Readiness Article in ORMS Today

Measuring Military Readiness by Shaun Doheney, Sam Gray, Connor McLemore, and Sam L. Savage. The article explains how open standard representations of uncertainty can help military decision-makers move from ambiguous estimates of “ready or not?” to unambiguously calculating, quantifying and communicating “how ready for what?” It appeared in the December 2019 issue of ORMS Today, Volume 46, Number 6.

Operation Readiness Rollup Article in PHALANX Magazine

Awarded the 2020 John K. Walker, Jr. Award given "to recognize the author(s) of the technical article judged to be the best published in PHALANX … during the previous calendar year." 

Operational Readiness Rollup by Shaun Doheney, LCDR Connor S. McLemore,and Sam L. Savage. The article describes how simulation and modeling can provide useful information in military operations readiness and appeared in the September 2019 issue of PHALANX - The Magazine of National Security Analysis, Volume 52, No. 3.

Listen to the CANA Connection Podcast, in which CANA Advisors' President Rob Cranston interviews CANA team member Connor McLemore about his recent award and the 88th MORS Symposium.

Readiness Modeling Presentation

Readiness Modeling: Changing the Question from “Ready or Not?” to “How Ready for What?”

Presented by Shaun Doheney, Chair of Resources and Readiness Applications; Connor McLemore, Chair of National Security Applications; and Dr. Sam Savage, Executive Director

Integrated Readiness Videos

ADM Grady is the Commander of U.S. Fleet Forces Command and U.S. Navy North. Listen to his incredibly insightful words in this short 3-minute video about developing an analytically-based integrated readiness assessment capability. This is exactly what ProbabilityManagement.org has been preaching for some time now and what SIPmath Modeler Tools were designed for!

Watch the second video to see ADM Grady’s full Keynote speech. 17:55 to 24:30 is the full MUST WATCH on readiness!

Air Wing Readiness Rollup Model

Air Wing Readiness Rollup Model (.xlsx)
Air Wing Readiness Rollup Model with Pilots (.xlsx)

This conceptual SIPmath model calculates the chance that an Air Wing will be ready for a specified mission. It performs 10,000 trials per keystroke, based on a hypothetical readiness SIP Library.

Readiness SIPs of the type used in the Air Wing model above may be generated from historical data or through simulation of various sorts. Phil Fahringer of Lockheed Martin has created a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation that generates the Readiness SIP of a squadron of 24 aircraft. Watch Video

SIPmath Readiness Roll-up Suite

• Engagement Model (.xlsx)

• Asset Model (.xlsx)

• Communications Model (.xlsx)

Rolled Up Readiness Model

• Tank Readiness Model (.xlsx)

Operation Eagle Claw

Operation Eagle Claw was a failed special operations mission designed to rescue 52 Americans who had been taken hostage by Iranian revolutionaries in Tehran in November 1979. The Naval Postgraduate School uses it a case study in Flaw-of-Average based decision modeling. This is described in the accompanying presentation and Excel model, which lets you experiment with the reliability and number of aircraft sent, then instantly simulates 10,000 missions to determine the chances of completion.

Presentation (.pptx)

Model (.xlsx)

Cost vs. Risk in Defense Portfolios

“Cost vs. Risk in Defense Portfolios” by Philip Fahringer and Sam Savage, Phalanx (March 2012).

Article (.pdf)

Model (.xlsm)