Operation Eagle Claw
Operation Eagle Claw was a failed special operations mission designed to rescue 52 Americans who had been taken hostage by Iranian revolutionaries in Tehran in November 1979. The Naval Postgraduate School uses it a case study in Flaw-of-Average based decision modeling. This is described in PowerPoint deck, and Helicopter.xlsx, which lets you experiment with the reliability and number of aircraft sent, then instantly simulates 10,000 missions to determine the chances of completion.
Article: Embracing the Uncertainty of the Iran Nuclear Deal
SIPmath™ Flood Model
By Sam Savage, August 2015.
This is an active SIPmath™ simulation of the example in Figures 1.5 and 37.3 of Dr. Savage's book, The Flaw of Averages: Why we Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty. It demonstrates that the average damage from flooding is greater than the damage associated with the average crest.
Files from Probability Management in Financial Planning
By Sam Savage and Shayne Kavanagh, Government Finance Review Magazine, February 2014.
These SIPmath™ models demonstrate the examples of scheduling, surplus and deficit, and reserves. The Dice calculator is available below.
, Sam Savage, Stefan Scholtes & Daniel Zweidler, OR/MS Today, Part 1, February, 2006
, Sam Savage, Stefan Scholtes & Daniel Zweidler, OR/MS Today, Part 2, February, 2006