 |
ProbabilityManagement.org |
Probability Management home page.
Membership list and signup form.
Read recent publications and press releases.
Test interative models.
List of software supporting the DIST™ standard as of December 2009.
|
The DIST™ Distribution String
In Black Jack, the dealer shuffles a deck of cards and then deals them out to the players. This is analogous to what happens with a random number generator in traditional Monte Carlo simulation. In duplicate bridge, however, cards are pre-shuffled, into identical decks which are distributed to multiple teams, who can then play under exactly duplicated conditions. The DIST™ Distribution String brings the same concept to Monte Carlo simulation, in a data structure that contains thousands of Monte Carlo trials. Furthermore, these trials are compressed, so that the entire "deck of cards" will fit in the single cell of a spreadsheet or element of a data base.
This has several advantages:
- DISTs can be generated by experts, to represent virtually any type of probability distribution, and then be distributed to others in a standardized format.
- Unlike traditional simulation, DISTs allow sub-simulations to be consolidated or rolled up into a master simulation.
- DISTs allow simulation models to be audited; something which has not been possible in the traditional environment.
Developed by ProbiliTech in collaboration with Oracle Corp., SAS Institute and Frontline Systems, the DIST™ standard is freely available for organizations wishing to develop supporting software.
To receive information on the DIST™ standard send an email to DistInfo@ProbabilityManagement.org.
|
|
|
Certified Distributions
The DIST™ standard enables the central generation of probability distribution estimates by a Chief Probability Officer (CPO), as defined in Probability Management, Savage, Scholtes & Zweidler, 2006. Distributions so generated are said to be Certified, and may bear the certification mark shown on the right.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |